美三总统参选人各有入主白宫战略

音频下载[点击右键另存为]

With less than seven months until Election Day, the three major U.S. presidential candidates each have their own strategy for winning the White House in November.

距离美国大选日还有不到7个月的时间，3名主要参选人每人都有自己赢得11月大选入主白宫的战略。

For the moment, Republican John McCain has an advantage over Democratic rivals Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

目前，共和党总统参选人约翰.麦凯恩的处境好于民主党竞争对手巴拉克.奥巴马和希拉里.克林顿。

McCain has effectively secured his party\'s presidential nomination and can focus on fundraising and preparing for the general election campaign that begins in September after the nominating conventions are over.

麦凯恩实际上已经稳获党内总统候选人提名，因此他可以全力以赴为今后的竞选活动筹集资金，并为两党党内提名大会结束后9月开始的大选竞争做准备。

McCain continues to make victory in Iraq the centerpiece of his campaign, and he will continue to tout his long experience in foreign policy and national security.

麦凯恩将继续把美国在伊拉克取得的胜利作为竞选中心议题，并继续以他在对外政策和国家安全方面的长期经验来打动选民。

"By giving General Petraeus and the men and women he has the honor to command the time and support necessary to succeed in Iraq, we have before us a hard road, but it is the right road, and it is necessary and just," he said.

McCain\'s biggest obstacle to winning in November may be a public yearning for change. A recent poll found 81 percent of those asked believe the United States is on the wrong track, and a weak economy is usually bad news for the party that holds the White House.

麦凯恩要想赢得11月的总统大选，他面临的最大难题就是公众渴望变革的心情。最新民调显示，81%的人认为美国偏离了正确的轨道，而经济疲软对于执政党来说通常都是坏消息。

"I would be very, very nervous about a looming environment that looks to be preparing the country for change," said Tom DeFrank, who is Washington bureau chief for the New York Daily News and a guest on VOA\'s Issues in the News program. "The country wants a lot of change, and when the country is ready for change, they do not usually leave the party in power in power."

汤姆.德弗兰克是纽约每日新闻驻华盛顿记者站负责人。他说：“如果我是麦凯恩，目前这个人心思变的紧迫形势会让我非常、非常紧张。这个国家希望有很多改革，而一旦人民做好了变革的准备，他们通常不会让目前的执政党继续掌权。”

The path to victory for both Democratic contenders is more complicated, because neither has yet secured enough delegates to claim their party\'s nomination.

对于民主党两位参选人来说，通往胜利的道路比较复杂，因为他们两人都没有赢得党内提名所需的代表票数。

Barack Obama leads in the delegate count and in the popular vote from the primaries and caucuses so far, and most experts now give Hillary Clinton only an outside chance of catching up in either category.

目前，奥巴马在代表票数和普选票数上都领先于克林顿。大多数专家认为，克林顿要想在这两方面反超奥巴马几乎没有可能。

Both Democrats sharply disagree with McCain\'s view on Iraq and have proposed a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops.

两位民主党参选人在伊拉克问题上都不认同麦凯恩的观点，他们都建议分阶段从伊拉克撤回美国军队。

Both Democratic contenders also campaign against one another with an eye toward the general election.

但奥巴马和克林顿仍然要为赢得党内提名而激烈较量。

Obama presents himself as a unifier who can draw support from independents and even some Republicans.

奥巴马以一个能够团结各派力量的形像出现在选民面前，显示自己既能得到独立选民的支持，甚至还能赢得一部分共和党选民的选票。

"We cannot afford another four years of Bush policies, and that is what John McCain is offering, and that is why I know we will come together this fall to take this country back," he said.

Senator Clinton counters that her experience in Congress and as First Lady would make her the stronger Democratic candidate against Republican John McCain.

克林顿则回应说，她在国会经历和做为第一夫人的经历得以让她成为民主党更强有力的人选，挑战共和党的麦凯恩。

"I can win. I know I can win," she said. "That is why I do this every day, and that is what my campaign is about. I am in it to win it, and I intend to do just that."

Both Democrats have demonstrated strengths in appealing to various voting groups.

奥巴马和克林顿显示出迎合不同选民群体的实力。

"You have to understand that Senator Clinton has been performing much better among certain kinds of voters. Latino voters, women voters, older voters and downscale voters, partisan Democrats who come from less affluent families," said Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes an independent political newsletter in Washington. "Senator Obama has been doing very well with independents, with younger voters, with of course African-Americans, and with upscale voters, high-education, high-income voters."

斯图尔特.罗森伯格在华盛顿出版政治时事通讯。他说：“人们必须明白，克林顿参议员的竞选在某些选民群体中产生的效果好得多，比如拉美裔选民、妇女选民、年长选民和低收入选民，也就是那些来自不太富有家庭的党派色彩鲜明的民主党选民。奥巴马参议员则在独立选民、年轻选民，当然还有非裔选民中非常受欢迎；受过高等教育、有高收入的选民也拥护他。”

Experts say both Democrats must do a better job of broadening their appeal to win their party\'s nomination and to be competitive against McCain in the general election.

Peter Brown, who is with the Polling Institute at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, says recent surveys in the key states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania suggest that Barack Obama needs to boost his support among working-class white voters.

彼德.布朗是康涅狄克州琴尼派克大学选举研究所研究员。他说，佛罗里达、俄亥俄和宾夕法尼亚等关键州最近的民调显示，奥巴马需要提高他在白人劳工阶层的支持率。

"Roughly one in five Democrats in each of these states say they will vote for McCain against Senator Obama, whereas only less than one-in-10 Democrats say they will vote for McCain versus Senator Clinton," he explained. "That is a pretty significant drop-off."

他说：“大体上，这几个州中各有五分之一的民主党选民表示他们会支持麦凯恩，而不支持奥巴马，相比之下，不支持克林顿、而支持麦凯恩的民主党选民不足十分之一，这个差距相当大。”

On the other hand, Brown says Hillary Clinton faces a different challenge. Clinton has the highest negative ratings of any of the major candidates and some Republicans believe she could become a uniting force for their party if she becomes the Democratic nominee.

另一方面，布朗指出，克林顿面临的是另外一种挑战。在主要总统参选人中，克林顿负面得分最高，因此有些共和党人认为，假如克林顿得到民主党提名，就有可能促成共和党内部的团结。

"There are very few Americans who do not have a pretty firm opinion about Senator Clinton," he added. "People know what they think about her. She has been an icon in American politics since 1992. That is a long time."

他说：“没有几个美国人不知道如何评价克林顿参议员。人们知道自己对克林顿参议员的看法。从1992年开始，她就是美国政界的偶像人物了，时间很久了。”

Given the strengths and weaknesses of the three contenders, it should come as no surprise that public opinion polls suggest a very close race in November between McCain and either Obama or Clinton.

在了解了三位总统参选人的优势与短处之后，民调显示在11月大选中麦凯恩和奥巴马或者克林顿的竞争将十分激烈，就不足为怪了。