阿高官否认美国对中央政府的评估

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Afghanistan\'s top intelligence officer is rejecting a U.S. estimate that only 30 percent of the country is under the control of the central government in Kabul. Amrullah Saleh suggested U.S. officials misunderstand Afghanistan\'s traditional governing system using local tribes.

阿富汗高级情报官员否认了美国估算的阿富汗中央政府仅仅控制阿富汗30%的地区的说法。阿富汗情报局局长萨利赫认为，美国官员们误解了阿富汗使用地方部落来进行管理的传统管理制度。

Last week, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell said most of Afghanistan is controlled by local tribes, about 10 percent is controlled by Taliban fighters and less than one third of the territory is controlled by President Hamid Karzai\'s government.

美国国家情报总监麦康奈尔上星期说，阿富汗的大部分地区被地方部落控制，塔利班战士控制了大约10%的地区，而阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊领导的政府仅仅控制了不到三分之一的地区。

On Monday in Kabul, Afghanistan\'s intelligence chief dismissed the claim.

阿富汗情报局局长萨利赫星期一在喀布尔否认了这一说法。

He said the percentage in that statement was totally baseless.

他说，美国发表的这份声明中的数据是完全没有根据的。

Amrulleh Saleh said that eight of the country\'s 364 districts, which account for about five percent of the land and two percent of Afghanistan\'s population, are outside central government control.

萨利赫说，在阿富汗的364个地区中，有8个地区不受阿富汗中央政府的控制，这8个地区大约占阿富汗土地面积的5%，占阿富汗总人口的2%。

During a news conference in Kabul, he blamed the widely divergent estimates on U.S. officials misunderstanding how Afghanistan\'s traditional tribal governing system functions.

在喀布尔召开的一次新闻发布会上，萨利赫批评美国官员由于误解了阿富汗传统的部落统治制度的运作方式，以致其估算产生了大幅度的偏差。

"While in America, an administration fully backed by tribal chiefs or dominated by tribal chiefs may be seen as a liability," said Saleh. "But here we see it as a very strong asset."

他说：“在美国，由部落领袖支持或控制的政府可能被看作是一种负担，但是在阿富汗，我们把它看作是一种非常强大的资产。”

But there are questions about how loyal these local tribal leaders are to carrying out the agenda of the Karzai government.

不过，至于这些地方部落领袖在执行阿富汗政府的计划方面有多么忠诚，这还是个疑问。

London-based Paul Burton is a policy analyst with the Senlis Council, a research organization studying drug and security issues in Afghanistan. He says the loyalty of local tribal leaders to the central government depends in a large part on Kabul\'s ability to deliver benefits to them.

居住在伦敦的伯顿是森利斯委员会的政策分析人士。森利斯委员会是研究阿富汗毒品与安全问题的研究机构。他说，地方部落领袖对阿富汗中央政府的忠诚度很大程度上取决于喀布尔方面能否给他们提供一些好处。

In southern Afghanistan, Burton says the central government struggles to provide even basic services.

伯顿说，在阿富汗南部，阿富汗中央政府甚至还不能提供基本的服务项目。

"We document, on a regular basis, an appalling lack of aid going to core infrastructure such as hospitals - in Kandahar for example," he said. "So within that context I think it is impossible for local tribal leaders to feel a great degree of warmth toward the center when they are seeing their people ravished and impoverished."

他说：“比如在坎大哈，我们的记录显示，像医院等一些重点机构经常面临救援物资的短缺。因此我认为，在这种情况下，当地方部落领袖们看到他们的人民生活在耻辱和贫穷中时，他们不可能会对中央政府产生极大的热情。”

Burton says the security situation in parts of the country has severely impeded efforts to develop government infrastructure.

伯顿说，阿富汗部分地区的安全状况严重地阻碍了在改善政府机构方面所作的努力。

Last year Afghanistan experienced the most intense fighting since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. News agencies have estimated that more than 6,000 people, most of whom were militants, were killed in the fighting in 2007.

Burton says there is evidence that some families are simultaneously backing Taliban and Afghan army (ANA) and police forces (ANP), merely because they are unsure who will prevail in the struggle for control.

伯顿说，有证据表明，一些阿富汗家庭同时支持塔利班组织、阿富汗国民军和阿富汗国民警察，他们这样做仅仅是因为他们不确定哪一方会获得得控制权。

"We have evidence to suggest that people are putting one fund into the Taliban and another fund into the ANA and another into the ANP," he said. "They are hedging their bets - they are seeing which side is going to win - purely driven from a sense of desperation."

他说：“我们有证据证明，人们投一部分资金给塔利班组织，投一部分资金给阿富汗国民军，再投另一部分资金给阿富汗国民警察。他们在保护他们的赌注，他们仅仅是在用一种绝望的心理来猜测哪一方将会获胜。”

One important indicator of the strength of the U.S.-backed Karzai government has been its ability, or inability, to curb opium-poppy cultivation. This week, the U.S. State Department reported that narcotics production in the country hit historic highs in 2007 for the second straight year.

衡量美国支持的阿富汗政府的力量的一个重要指标是它能否有能力抑制鸦片原料罂粟的种植。美国国务院本星期发表的报告说，阿富汗2007年的毒品生产量已经连续第二年创下历史高峰。

U.S. analysts said the estimated $4 billion in illicit opium accounted for more than a third of Afghanistan\'s gross domestic product.

美国分析人士说，据估计，违法的鸦片交易带来的40亿美元的收入占阿富汗国民生产总值的三分之一以上。