伊朗总统在总统选举之前面临挑战

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Loyalists of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were big winners in the recent parliamentary elections. With many reformists locked out of the electoral process, the contests were primarily between different factions in the conservative camp. In this election analysis, the Iranian president could still face some rough times ahead as the presidential election looms on the horizon.

在伊朗最近的议会选举中，总统艾哈迈迪内贾德的支持者大有斩获。许多改革派人士被剥夺竞选的权利，竞选基本上是在保守派的不同派系之间展开。在总统选举日益临近之际，伊朗总统今后仍然可能面临困难。

For many Iran watchers, the key question is why, despite high inflation, rising prices and gasoline rationing, Iranian voters seemed reluctant to blame President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for their economic woes.

对许多伊朗观察人士来说，主要问题是，尽管通货膨胀居高不下、物价高涨、汽油实行配给，伊朗选民似乎仍不愿意把伊朗的经济问题归罪于总统艾哈迈迪内贾德。

With most of the prominent reformists blocked from competing, the parliamentary elections turned into a contest of conservative factions. Those Ahmadinejad loyalists, who call themselves principalists, squared off against more pragmatic conservatives who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad economic policies. The Ahmadinejad camp won the largest share of seats in the Majlis, or parliament.

在大多数优秀的改革派人士被剥夺竞选资格的情况下，议会选举成为保守派派系之间的竞争。艾哈迈迪内贾德的效忠者称自己为“原则派”，他们在同那些批评艾哈迈迪内贾德经济政策的更加务实的保守派人士对阵。艾哈迈迪内贾德阵营在议会选举中赢得了最多的席位。

The final balance of power in the Majlis will not be known until a runoff election in May.

在5月份的决选举行之前，伊朗议会的力量平衡还未见分晓。

Hooshang Amirahmadi, a professor at Rutgers University and president of the American-IranianCouncil, says President Ahmadinejad successfully shifted blame for Iran\'s economic woes elsewhere.

罗格斯大学教授、美国伊朗关系理事会主席阿米拉马迪说，艾哈迈迪内贾德总统成功地推卸了伊朗经济困境的责任。

"To my surprise they also blame the outside world," Amirahmadi said. "They blame sanctions. Ahmadinejad has obviously been successful to some extent in transferring the blame to the U.N., to the U.S., to Europe. Although they [the Iranians] say the sanctions are not effective, they do blame inflation on the outside [world]."

他说：“让我感到惊讶的是，他们在责怪外部世界。他们责怪制裁。从某种程度上说，艾哈迈迪内贾德成功地把罪责转到联合国、美国和欧洲。尽管他们说，制裁是没有成效的，他们确实把通货膨胀归咎于于外部世界。”

Iran has been sanctioned for its alleged ambitions to be a nuclear weapons power. Iran denies the charge.

伊朗因为据称有发展核武器的野心而受到制裁。伊朗否认这些指控。

The United States and European nations have denounced the elections as unfree and unfair.

美国和欧洲国家指责伊朗的选举是不自由和不公平的。

In an interview with VOA\'s Persian News Network, President Bush says he is not surprised that Iranian politicians tried to shift the blame for Iran\'s economic woes.

布什总统在接受美国之音波斯语新闻网的采访时说，他对伊朗官员试图推卸伊朗经济困境责任的做法并不感到意外。

"Any time a government is failing to meet the needs of people - or a lot of times, not any time - but a lot of times governments have failed to meet the needs of their people, particularly in relatively non-transparent, non-free societies they always look for somebody to blame," he said. "And I\'m not surprised that the leaders would blame the United States for the problems they themselves have created."

布什说：“任何时候，在一个政府没能满足人民要求的时候，特别是在那些不公开、不自由的社会，他们通常会找别人当替罪羊。那些领导人把他们自己造成的问题归咎于美国，我并不会感到意外。”

Ken Katzman, an Iran analyst at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says President Ahmadinejad, who campaigned on a populist platform in the last presidential election in 2005, retains a loyal base in the rural areas.

非党派的美国国会研究处的伊朗问题专家卡兹曼说，艾哈迈迪内贾德总统在乡村地区有忠实的群众基础，他在上一次2005年的总统选举中以民粹派政纲进行竞选。

"What I think that many in the West, including maybe myself, felt was that because his economic policies were not that successful, the voters would make him pay," Katzman said. "But the rural voters seem to like the fact that he is at least paying attention to their concerns. He visits, he gets petitions, he at least surveys with his own eyes what the rural voter is facing. And inflation is maybe not that much of a big deal to the rural voters because maybe they can get more for their farm products."

卡兹曼说：“我认为，许多在西方国家的人，包括我自己，都会认为因为他的经济政策不那么成功，选民会让他付出代价。但是乡村地区的选民似乎欢迎这样一个情况，至少艾哈迈迪内贾德关注人们所关切的事情。他访贫问苦、接受请愿，他至少去亲自调查乡村地区选民的处境。对乡村地区的选民来说，通货膨胀可能不是那么严重的事，因为他们也许从自己的农产品中得到的更多。”

Analysts say the conservative pragmatists still won enough seats to make life difficult for the president in the Majlis and to challenge him in next year\'s presidential election.

分析人士说，务实的保守派人士能够赢得足够的席位，让艾哈迈迪内贾德在议会中面临困境，并且在明年的总统选举中对他进行挑战。

Hooshang Amirahmadi, who was in Iran just before the elections, says he would not bet against Mr. Ahmadinejad at this point, although, he adds, what happens in U.S.-Iranian relations will affect the political dynamic in Tehran.

阿米拉马迪在议会选举前在伊朗，他说，他不会打赌艾哈迈迪内贾德不会赢得选举，但是，他说，美国和伊朗关系的发展将影响德黑兰的政治动向。

"A year from now, God knows," Amirahmadi said. "Iran is a land of surprises and all kinds of things can happen. And I think U.S.-Iran relations can have a serious impact on the way things go. If, God forbid, there is a military move against Iran in the next seven, eight months or a year, I can almost 100 percent assure you that people like Ahmadinejad will stay in power and even become stronger."

阿米拉马迪说：“一年以后，谁知道会发生什么呢。伊朗是一个充满意外的地方，任何事都有可能发生。我认为，美国和伊朗的关系会严重影响局势发展。但愿这种情况不要发生。如果伊朗在未来的7到8个月或者一年内受到军事打击，我可以百分之百地肯定，像艾哈迈迪内贾德这样的人会继续执掌政权并且会变得更加强大。”

Katzman adds that those reformists who were allowed to run did comparatively well, and could still emerge as a political force next year.

卡兹曼补充说，那些被允许参加竞选的改革派人士相对来说得票率很高，他们明年仍然可能成为一股政治力量。

"After Ahmadinejad won in \'05, the reformists were basically prostrate," he said. "They were just in complete and utter disarray, holding conferences, hand-wringing about what went wrong, etcetera. Now they at least seem to found some sea legs. They\'re regrouping, they\'re trying to get organized. And I think to count them out would be a mistake."

卡兹曼说：“在艾哈迈迪内贾德在2005年取得胜利之后，改革派基本上是被打败了，他们溃不成军。他们召集了一些会议，记录出现的问题。现在，至少他们似乎恢复了平稳行走的能力。他们进行整编、重新整合。我觉得，认为他们已经被淘汰出局是一个错误。”

The Iranian presidential election is expected to be held in June 2009 or shortly thereafter.

伊朗的总统选举预计在2009年6月或稍后举行。