最新民调显示美总统选情变化不定

音频下载[点击右键另存为]

Some new public opinion polls suggest a close and volatile presidential race in the months ahead.

一些新的民意调查结果显示，今后几个月美国总统竞选的选情将非常接近和变化不定。

Some good news for Hillary Clinton in her battle with Barack Obama for the Democratic Party\'s presidential nomination.

对于正在与奥巴马争夺民主党总统候选人提名的希拉里.克林顿来说，现在有了一些好消息。

The latest Gallup poll has Clinton pulling ahead of Obama by a margin of 49 to 42 percent.

最新的盖洛普民意调查结果显示，希拉里.克林顿以49%比42%领先于奥巴马。

But there was also good news for the presumed Republican presidential nominee, Senator John McCain. The latest Reuters-Zogby poll shows McCain beating Obama by a margin of 46 to 40 percent, and defeating Clinton by a margin of 48 to 40 percent.

对于被认为已经获得共和党总统候选人提名的麦凯恩来说，也有一些好消息。最新的路透社-佐格比民意调查结果显示，麦凯恩将以46%比40%击败奥巴马，以48%比40%击败希拉里.克林顿。

McCain was in Britain Thursday as part of a congressional trip to Europe and the Middle East.

麦凯恩星期四访问英国，这是他作为国会议员出访欧洲和中东地区的组成部分。

After a meeting with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, McCain said he appreciated British military efforts in Iraq.

麦凯恩在会晤英国首相布朗后表示，他感谢英国在伊拉克做出的军事努力。

"All I can do is express my gratitude to the British government and people, and especially the young people who are serving," said McCain.

他说：“我所能做的只是向英国政府和人民，特别是向那些正在服役的年轻人表示感激之情。”

McCain has made victory in Iraq the centerpiece of his presidential campaign, and has criticized Democrats Clinton and Obama for advocating a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

麦凯恩把打赢伊拉克战争作为竞选的中心议题，并批评民主党候选人希拉里.克林顿和奥巴马主张逐步从伊拉克撤军。

Obama took his presidential campaign to West Virginia where he said the half trillion dollar cost of the Iraq war was a drag on the U.S. economy.

奥巴马在西维吉尼亚进行竞选活动时说，在伊拉克战争中耗费的5千亿美元拖累了美国经济。

Obama also criticized McCain for embracing President Bush\'s policies on Iraq and the economy.

另外，奥巴马还批评麦凯恩赞同布什总统在伊拉克和经济问题上的政策。

"No matter what the costs, no matter what the consequences, John McCain seems determined to carry out a third Bush term," said Barack Obama. "That is an outcome America cannot afford."

他说：“看来麦凯恩已经打定主意，不论付出多大代价，无论后果如何，都要延续布什总统的政策，而这种结果是美国人民所承受不起的。”

Recent polls suggest about 60 percent of Americans still view the Iraq war as a mistake. But a growing number of voters now see the military surge strategy in Iraq as a success and believe McCain might be the candidate best able to handle the situation in Iraq.

最近的民调结果显示，大约60%的美国人认为对伊战争是错误的。但是，现在越来越多的美国选民认为在伊拉克的增兵战略取得了成功，并认为麦凯恩或许是最有能力处理伊拉克局势的总统候选人。

Karlyn Bowman monitors U.S. public opinion.

美国舆论的观察人士鲍曼说：

"The war, at least at this stage, is not the albatross that many people predicted it would be for the Republican candidate," said Karlyn Bowman.

“对这位共和党候选人而言，这场战争，至少在目前阶段，并不像很多美国人预测的那样不吉利。”

McCain has the luxury of having his nomination battle wrapped up. That is not the case for Obama and Clinton as they look ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

麦凯恩现在可以不再理会争取候选人提名的竞选，而奥巴马和希拉里.克林顿却不能，他们目前都把注意力放在定于4月22号举行的宾夕法尼亚州初选上。

Senator Clinton is hoping to cut into Obama\'s lead in the delegate count with a victory in Pennsylvania, and is also hoping for re-votes in the large states of Florida and Michigan.

希拉里.克林顿希望在宾夕法尼亚州取胜，缩小与奥巴马在选举人票上的差距，同时还希望在佛罗里达和密西根这两个大州重新进行初选。

"So again, I would call on Senator Obama to join me in supporting the rights of the people of Michigan and Florida to have their voices and their votes counted," said Hillary Clinton.

她说：“我再次呼吁奥巴马参议员和我一道，支持密西根和佛罗里达人民要让自己的声音和选票算数的权利。”

Florida and Michigan held primaries in January that Clinton won. But the national Democratic Party disallowed the results because the two states moved up the dates of their primaries in violation of party rules.

佛罗里达和密西根在1月举行了初选，结果都是希拉里.克林顿获胜。但是，由于这两个州违反民主党的规定，提前举行初选，因此民主党全国委员会宣布这两个州的初选结果无效。

Clinton is hoping that re-votes of the two primaries would give her new momentum and added delegates in her battle with Obama. But it now appears unlikely that state party officials in both states will be able to agree on holding either a new primary or a mail-in vote.

希拉里.克林顿希望这两个州重新进行初选会使自己获得新的势头，在与奥巴马的选战中增加代表人票数。但从目前来看，这两个州的民主党负责人都不大可能同意重新举行初选或通过邮件投票。

Political analysts say redoing the Florida and Michigan votes is a key part of Clinton\'s strategy to win the Democratic nomination.

政治分析人士认为，重新把佛罗里达和密西根的选票计算在内，是希拉里.克林顿争取赢得民主党总统候选人提名的战略的重要组成部分。

John Fortier is a political expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

总部设在华盛顿的美国企业研究所的政治问题专家福捷说：

"She really needed not only the delegates, but the momentum and the possibility of more delegates out there to keep her campaign going," said John Fortier. "And as it looks like that is not going to happen, the odds of her winning the nomination are very, very small. The delegates are not there, the momentum is not there, and because of that you may see some super delegates coming to that conclusion in the next few weeks before Pennsylvania."

“希拉里.克林顿不仅需要代表选票，而且需要这种势头以及由此而来的更多的选举人票，以便把她的竞选持续下去。由于这种情况看来不会出现，她赢得提名的机率非常、非常小。她拿不到选举人票，她得不到这种势头，而由于存在这些因素，一些超级代表在宾夕法尼亚举行初选之前的这几个星期里可能就会得出这一结论。”

Super delegates are uncommitted party activists and elected officials who will play a crucial role in choosing the Democratic party nominee for president. Neither Obama nor Clinton can win enough delegates in the remaining primaries or caucuses to secure the nomination outright, so both candidates are making a play for their support.

所谓“超级代表”，就是可以根据个人意愿投票的民主党活动人士和官员，他们将在选择民主党总统候选人提名时扮演关键性的角色。在剩下的初选和基层党团会议推选中，奥巴马和希拉里.克林顿都不可能拿到确保获得总统候选人提名的代表人票数，因此他们都在努力争取超级代表的支持。