联合国报告预测亚太经济持续增长

音频下载[点击右键另存为]

An annual U.N. Economic and Social report is projecting that economic growth in the Asia Pacific region will continue this year, despite the expected recession in the United States. The survey says that together with U.S. economic uncertainty, rising food prices and poor agricultural policies are key challenges for the region.

联合国一份经济与社会报告预测，尽管有人担心美国会出现经济衰退，但是亚太地区今年经济将持续增长。这份报告认为，美国经济的不确定性、外加食品价格的提高和不良的农业政策，都是亚太地区面临的主要威胁。

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific says developing countries in the Asia Pacific region are expected to grow at a slightly lower rate, at 7.7 percent in 2008, after enjoying its fastest growth in a decade in 2007.

联合国亚太经济社会委员会预测，亚太地区发展中国家2008年的经济发展速度是7.7%，比2007前10年的最快发展速度略有下降。

China and India, the region\'s economic drivers, are projected to grow at 10.7 percent and 9 percent. And for the region\'s developed economies, the U.N. says they can expect a growth of 1.6 percent this year, slightly lower than the two percent recorded in 2007.

中国和印度这两个地区经济引擎将分别增长10%和9%。报告说，亚太地区的发达国家今年的经济会增长1.6%，略低于2007年的2%。

Shamika Sirimanne is a senior United Nations economist. She says while the Asia Pacific economies will see some moderation in growth through 2008, they are fundamentally stronger than a decade ago during Asia\'s 1997 financial crisis.

莎米卡.斯瑞曼是联合国高级经济学家。她说，虽然亚太地区国家经济2008年不会显著增长，但经济状况从根本上说还是比1997年亚洲金融危机期间强很多：

"We think these economies are very, very resilient," she said. "They have low debt, they have budget deficits under control, surpluses in trade balances in
many places plus there is about three-point-five trillion dollars in reserves. Plus the fact at the moment there is very low exposure to the
U.S. subprime crisis in the region."

“我认为这些国家经济非常强韧。他们债务很低、预算赤字得到控制、很多地区贸易盈余、外加有大约3万5千亿美元的外汇储备。而且这个地区目前受美国次级贷款危机的影响很小。”

But Sirimanne warns there are still great uncertainties facing the region, especially over the degree of the slowdown in the United States economy.

但是斯瑞曼警告说，当地还面临很大的不确定性，特别是美国经济会下滑到什么程度。

The U.N. report noted that rising food prices are a much greater inflation challenge than oil prices, because food accounts for a far higher proportion of consumer spending.

联合国报告说，由于食品占据消费开支的比例更大，所以食品价格的升高比石油价格升高更容易导致通货膨胀。

The Food and Agricultural Organization says food costs worldwide spiked 23 percent from 2006 to 2007. Grains went up 42 percent, while dairy increased by 80 percent.

联合国粮食及农业组织说，世界范围内的食品开销2006年到2007年增长了23%，粮食价格提高了43%，奶制品价格升高了80%。

The survey also stressed that chronic neglect of the agriculture sector in the region is keeping 218 million people stuck in extreme poverty.

调查报告还强调说，当地长期忽视农业，让2亿1千8百万人陷入极端贫困。

Malcolm Cook is the Program Director for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Australia. He says policy makers in many parts of the Asian region, including the Philippines and Indonesia, have failed to improve some vital areas of its agricultural sector, and have financially lost a lot because of it.

马尔科姆.库克是澳大利亚罗伊研究所东亚计划主任。他说，菲律宾和印度尼西亚等亚洲地区很多国家的政策制定人都未能改善农业一些关键领域，因此财政损失巨大。

"Maintaining irrigation systems, extending irrigation systems, and improving farm to market access roads, so pretty much your meats and potatoes of agricultural policies," he said.

库克说：“维持灌溉系统、延伸灌溉系统，改善农庄通往市场的道路，这些都是农业政策的关键项目。”

The report called on governments to implement policies that focus directly on improving agricultural productivity, such as connecting the rural poor to cities and markets and making it easier for farmers to access loans and crop insurance.

调查报告呼吁亚太政府贯彻直接提高农业生产率的重点政策，比如将农村的贫困人口同城市和市场相连接，让农民更容易得到贷款和农作物保险服务。

The report also says liberalizing global trade in agricultural would bring 48 million people out of poverty. Agriculture provides employment for 60 percent of the working population in the region.

联合国的报告还说，实现农业全球贸易自由化能让4千8百万人脱贫。农业占亚太地区劳动人口的60%。