报告：全球信贷市场动荡或恶化

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The International Monetary Fund Tuesday said the turmoil in world credit markets that began with rising home loan defaults in the United States is not over and losses could hit $945 billion as the impact spreads into the global economy. The Bloomberg financial news services estimates that banks and securities firms have so far written off only a fraction of that total, $232 billion.

国际货币基金组织星期二报告说，美国次贷危机引起的全球信贷市场动荡并没有结束，而且有可能恶化。

IMF specialists say the overall risks to global financial stability have increased sharply in recent months. Jaime Caruana is the principal author of the IMF report on financial stability.

国际货币基金组织的专家指出，最近几个月来，全球金融市场面临的风险急剧增加，直接威胁到金融市场的稳定。

"The credit shock emanating from the US subprime crisis is set to broaden amid a significant economic slowdown," he said. "The deterioration in credit has moved up and across the credit spectrum."

杰米.卡鲁那(Jaime Caruana)是国际货币基金组织货币与资本市场部主任，也是国际货币基金组织关于全球金融稳定状况报告的主要作者。他说：“从美国次级房贷危机放射出来的信贷市场震荡随着经济的大幅度走缓将会进一步扩大。信贷市场的恶化已经加剧，而且扩散到了整个信贷领域。”

As bank losses have soared, lenders have tightened standards and, despite lower interest rates, many commercial and consumer loans are still hard to come by. Caruana says more than six months into the crisis, credit markets are still not functioning normally.

银行亏损与日俱增，信贷机构纷纷收紧放贷标准，尽管利率不断降低，但很多商业和消费者贷款却还是难以落实。卡鲁那指出，次贷危机发生至今已经六个多月了，信贷市场依然没有恢复正常运作。

"We have seen confidence quickly evaporate, ending in liquidity driven solvency events that threaten the core financial system," he added.

他说：“我们看到，人们的信心在快速蒸发，结果，流动性减少，违约率增加，这一切都威胁着我们的核心金融系统。”

He is referring to the US central bank-orchestrated rescue of the Bear Stearns investment bank, which teetered on the brink of bankruptcy because of loan losses.

卡鲁那指的是上个月美国中央银行美联储合力帮助挽救华尔街投资银行贝尔斯登公司。贝尔斯登公司由于受到信贷亏损的打击而濒临破产。美联储认为，如果不对贝尔斯登公司伸出援手，美国的整个金融系统都将受到威胁。

The IMF is not alone in its worry that the credit crisis could worsen. Morris Goldstein, a financial specialist at Washington\'s Peterson Institute, says if home prices continue to fall in the United States, defaults on mortgage loans could grow beyond the two million predicted for this year.

担心信贷危机恶化的并不仅仅是国际货币基金组织。华盛顿智囊团彼得森国际经济研究所的金融专家莫里斯.戈尔茨坦也认为，假如美国的房屋价格继续下滑，今年的房贷违约数量有可能超过先前预期的两百万。

"It\'s been estimated that if US housing prices fall by an additional 15 percent or so, approximately a third of US homeowners will have negative equity in their homes," he explained. "This raises the question of whether willingness to pay will have to be addressed along with ability to pay."

他说：“据估计，假如美国的房屋价格进一步下跌15%，那么，大约三分之一的美国房主就将面临资不抵债的困境，(也就是说，他们的房屋贷款额超过了房屋的市场价格)。由此引起的问题就不光是他们是否有能力偿还贷款了，而会还牵涉到他们愿不愿意偿还。”

US home prices on average declined by 10 percent in 2007, a factor IMF economists say contributed to the global credit crisis. Many US mortgage loans were bundled into securities and sold to financial institutions worldwide.

美国的房屋价格在2007年平均下滑了10%，国际货币基金组织的经济学家认为，这个因素对全球信贷危机起了推波助澜的作用。美国的很多房屋抵押贷款被塞进有价证券卖给了世界各地的金融机构。

Caruana says if the situation worsens, it may be necessary for governments to spend taxpayer money to stabilize markets.

卡鲁那说，假如形势进一步恶化，各国政府也许有必要动用纳税人的钱来稳定市场。

"I think we have to be careful on that," he cautioned. "And the question is to what extent the situation continues to deteriorate."

他说：“我认为，在这方面我们必须谨慎小心。关键问题是，形势会继续恶化到什么程度。”

The IMF says lax regulation and a failure to recognize the risks of highly leveraged loans contributed to the credit crisis. Financial markets, it says, will come under increased strain as world economic growth decelerates.

国际货币基金组织说，管理松弛和对高度杠杆借贷的风险缺乏认识导致了目前的信贷危机。伴随着全球经济增长减速，金融市场势必受到越来越大的压力。