猪肉价格下跌 引发政府忧虑

The Chinese love pork so much that the meat sits prominently on the government\'s plate of policy considerations.
中国人如此喜欢猪肉，以致于猪肉在中国政府的政策考虑中占据着重要地位。

That\'s why it\'s potentially pertinent that the state television station ran a little-noticed story late Sunday, reporting a further drop in domestic pork prices and warning against diminishing hog-breeding incentives that could lead to a spike in prices later in the year.
这也是为什么周日晚间中国国家电视台一个少有注意的报导可能会相当切题；报导称，中国国内猪肉价格进一步下跌，并警告称养猪激励措施不断减少可能会导致今年晚些时候肉价飙升。

Statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing\'s top economic planning agency, show that pork prices in major Chinese cities fell 10% in April from a year earlier. If prices continue to fall, farmers will start killing pigs because it makes no sense for them to buy the feed for hogs that are worth little when sold.
中国政府经济规划部门国家发展和改革委员会的统计数据显示，4月份中国主要城市的猪肉价格较上年同期下滑了10%。如果猪肉价格继续下跌，农民会开始宰猪，因为如果猪卖不出好价格，他们再购买饲料养猪就没有意义了。

The TV report warned the government is already considering boosting the country\'s pork reserves and offering subsidies to pig farmers, in a bid to ensure future supply.
电视报导警告称，政府已经在考虑增加国家的猪肉储备，并为养猪农民提供补贴，以确保未来的猪肉供应。

That\'s a sobering message and interesting timing as it came on the eve of data that showed further declines in China\'s consumer-price and producer-price indices.
这篇报导传递了一个严肃的信息，时间也赶的很巧，因为报导是在中国物价数据公布前一天播出的。随后公布的中国消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)出现了进一步下滑。

Pork has always been much more than a basic ingredient of Kung Pao dishes in China. Food constitutes nearly 33% of China\'s CPI, and pork\'s weight in the food category is estimated to be at least 10%. In April, food prices dropped 1.3% from a year earlier.
猪肉对中国的意义远远不只是中国宫爆菜肴中的一道基本原料。食品占据了中国CPI将近33%的比重，而猪肉在食品类别中的权重估计至少在10%。今年4月份，中国食品价格较上年同期下降了1.3%。

But those data aside, it appears that Beijing is starting to become worried about a potential spike in pork prices down the track, and with good reason.
但抛开这些数据，看起来北京正开始担心接下去猪肉价格可能会上涨，这种担心是有充分理由的。

Rising pork prices due to expensive raw material costs were a major factor driving inflation to around 7% only two years ago, forcing Beijing to hike interest rates six times and take a series of other measures to try and bring pork prices down.
就在两年前，原材料成本高昂造成猪肉价格不断上涨，在很大程度上导致了中国通货膨胀率升至7%左右的高位；从而迫使中国政府六次上调利率，并采取一系列其他措施努力推动猪肉价格回落。

If the authorities don\'t prevent another supply crisis, a repeat of 2007 could well take place in the coming months, with potentially disastrous consequences.
如果中国政府不能阻止又一次猪肉供应危机，2007年的情况可能会在未来几个月重演，有可能会造成灾难性的影响。

With the global economy in recession and China struggling to keep growth over the magic 8% mark, via a huge stimulus plan, the last thing it wants to see is stagflation.
目前全球经济正处于衰退当中，中国正通过一个规模庞大的刺激计划努力维持8%的经济增长率。在这个节骨眼上，中国最不愿意见到的就是滞胀。