罗兰德在中国城镇化报告宣讲会上的讲话
Remarks by World Bank Country Director for China Klaus Rohland: Building More Efficient Cities in China
世界银行中国局局长罗兰德在中国城镇化报告宣讲会上的讲话——“中国构建更高效城市”
ECOSOC Integration Segment
联合国总部经社理事会会议厅
New York, United States
纽约，美国
May 28, 2014
2014年5月28日
Thank you, Dr. Clos, Ambassador Wang, Dr. Ba, for this wonderful event. As Dr. Ba has mentioned, our report, Urban China, was jointly produced by the Development Research Center and the World Bank over the last year. It follows on the heels of the China 2030 Report that DRC and the World Bank did two years ago. Both reports were done at the request of China’s leaders and we are proud of the excellent relationship and, dare I say, the friendship developed between the team members of the DRC and the World Bank over these years.
感谢克洛斯博士、王民大使、巴博士组织了此次宣讲会。正如巴博士所言，《中国：推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化》报告由国务院发展研究中心（国研中心）和世行在过去一年中联合编制。该报告是继两年前国研中心和世行联合编写的《2030年的中国》报告之后的又一重要报告。两份报告均应中国政府领导人要求编写。这些年来，国研中心团队成员和世行团队成员之间建立了良好关系，同时，请允许我冒昧地说，也建立了深厚友谊。我们对这一关系和友谊感到自豪。
Our cooperation has offered us a unique opportunity to bring local expertise and global knowledge together. DRC, as you all know, is a preeminent think tank in China under the State Council, with an impressive capacity for research and valuable insights into policy making in China. The World Bank can bring to the table its global knowledge about what has worked and what hasn’t in other countries. Fusing local and global knowledge and building on comparative advantages is the way ahead for the World Bank, as our client countries are getting ever more sophisticated. I believe that we have charted a path for new ways of doing business for international institutions through our work.
双方的合作为我们汇聚本地专业知识和全球知识提供了独特契机。正如在座的诸位所知，国研中心是中国国务院下属的一个卓越智库，具备很强的政策研究能力和决策洞察力。世行能够带来其全球知识，介绍其它国家已奏效和未奏效的措施。随着我们的借款客户国变得愈发成熟且有经验，融合本地知识和全球知识以及发挥其比较优势将是世行今后采取的策略。我认为，通过我们的工作，我们已经为国际机构开展业务的新方式引领了路径。
Let us talk about urbanisation in China. You are all aware of the facts. In the past 30 years, urbanisation has contributed enormously to economic growth and modernization in China. About 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty and about 260 million migrated to cities to seek better opportunities. Today, China’s mega cities have income levels comparable with those of some OECD countries. Importantly, China has avoided some of the common ills of urbanization, notably urban poverty, unemployment and squalor.
接下来，我谈谈中国的城镇化。在座的各位都深谙实际情况。过去三十年来，城镇化对中国经济增长和现代化作出了巨大贡献。约5亿人脱贫，约2.6亿人流入城市，寻找更好的就业和发展机会。如今，中国特大城市的收入水平与一些经合组织国家特大城市的收入水平相当。突出的一点是，中国成功地避免了城镇化的一些常见病，尤其是城镇贫困、失业和环境脏乱差等问题。
Urbanization has been a global phenomenon since the onset of the industrial revolution in the 18th century. In England, for example, the share of urban population rose from 17% at the beginning of the 19th century to 72% some 90 years later. Countries experience urbanization spurts, such as the United States of America, as well as England in the mid‑to‑late 19th century and Germany around the turn of the 19th to the 20th century. Urbanization rates increased in Japan later during the last century and in Korea after 1960. Sometime during the first decade of this century, the tide turned and more than 50% of the world’s population were living in cities. By 2050, it is projected that more than 60% of the developing world and a staggering 85% of the developed world will be urbanized.
城镇化是18世纪工业革命以来的一个全球性现象。例如，英国城镇人口占比从19世纪初的17%提高到90年后的72%。不少国家均经历了“井喷式”城镇化，譬如美国、19世纪中后期的英国以及19世纪和20世纪之交的德国。上世纪，日本城镇化提速；1960年以后，韩国城镇化也是如此。本世纪头十年，城镇化浪潮转向发展中国家，全世界半数以上人口在城市居住。预计到2050年，发展中国家的城镇化率将超过60%，发达国家将达到令人惊愕的85%。
The trend is clear. It is also unstoppable: all countries of the world will urbanize, each in their own ways and at their own pace, of course, but urbanize they will. And urbanisation does not happen by administrative fiat or by policy choice. The challenge for governments around the world is to manage it in such a way that their countries and their people benefit from it to the maximum possible. And that is also what the Prime Minister of China had in mind, when, in November 2013, he proposed that the DRC and World Bank work on urbanization.
城镇化趋势明朗，也不可阻挡：世界各国将通过各自路径并以其自身速度实现城镇化。城镇化不会借助行政命令或政策选择而实现。世界各国政府面临的挑战在于有效管理城镇化进程，使其国家和人民最大限度地从城镇化受益。这一点也是中国国务院总理2013年11月建议国研中心和世行就城镇化开展研究时的考虑。
Urbanization is linked to productivity growth. China’s economy needs this for its future economic development. Most of the observers agree: China’s growth model of the last 30 years has run its course. I would like to highlight three points to make the case.
城镇化与生产率提高密切相关。中国未来经济发展需要城镇化。大多数观察人士认为，中国过去三十年来采用的增长模式已完成其使命。在此，我主要提三点来印证这一说法。
First, China, as it moves to the technological frontier, can no longer benefit from the advantages of backwardness, as it did in the last 30 years. Second, the demographic dividend of China—a young population with concomitant low labor cost—is also diminishing, as China’s demographic profile is turning. Within this decade, some say as early as 2016, more people will leave than enter the workforce. Needless to say, this will have huge implications for wages and increase labor cost. Fewer people will have to work more efficiently: Productivity will be the new source for economic growth. And productivity and its twin, innovation, are intrinsically linked to urban agglomerations.
首先，随着中国逐步走向技术前沿，已不再能够像过去三十年那样从落后的优势中受益。其次，中国的人口红利——年轻人口与低劳动力成本并存——也在减少，因为中国的人口结构正在转变。在这个十年内，有些人认为最早在2016年，更多人将脱离而不是加入劳动力队伍。毋庸置疑，这将会对工资水平产生巨大影响，并将增加劳动力成本。劳动力减少后，人们就必须要提高工作效率：生产率将成为新的经济增长源。生产率及其孪生姊妹——创新与城镇集群密不可分。
Finally, China is also constrained by one overarching consideration: Climate change and the need for mitigation. Adaptation to global warming will limit its choices for growth. Earlier on, developed countries of today were ignorant of the dangers of climate change and built their progress on, what we by now know, unsustainable strategies. There is a limit to economic growth based on the exploitation of natural resources. Learning from this experience, before becoming rich, China has to shift to a new strategy to make sure that its development is sustainable for China, as well as for the rest of the world.
最后，中国也受到了一个首要考虑的制约：气候变化及缓解其影响的必要性。适应全球变暖趋势将限制其对增长方式的选择。早年间，发达国家忽视了气候变化的威胁，将其发展寄托在现在我们知道是不可持续的战略之上。依托利用自然资源来发展经济，则会制约经济增长。基于这一经验，在成为富裕国家之前，中国必须要转而采用新战略，确保其发展具备可持续性，这不仅对其自身有益，对世界其它国家也将有益。
Sustainable urbanization is at the center of such a new strategy. It must address the problem of urban sprawl in China: its cities are growing much faster in space than in population. The effects are clear, as air pollution and its long-term effects have become a pressing concern for citizens. Traffic congestions are occurring daily in China’s metropolises, wasting energy and time. The cost of infrastructure, such as water supply, roads and public transportation, will rise to unsustainable levels. Efficient and sustainable spatial development will be a priority.
可持续城镇化是这一新战略的核心。可持续城镇化必须要回应中国城市蔓延问题：中国城市空间增速大大快于城市人口增速。城市蔓延的影响显而易见，因为空气污染及其长期影响已成为市民的一大急需解决的问题。在中国的大都市，交通拥堵每天都在发生，不仅浪费了能源，也浪费了时间。供水、道路和公共交通等基础设施的成本将增至不可持续的水平。高效、可持续的空间开发将成为一大要务。
China’s urbanization also has come at a social cost. There is a growing welfare gap between urban and rural populations. The working young are moving into the cities, yet the old and the very young are left behind in the remote countryside, the villages and hamlets of rural China. If unattended, this gap may well turn into a chasm. There is another gap within cities, between those registered as citizens and those who have migrated to the city, with fewer rights and lesser access to public services.
中国的城镇化也造成了社会代价。城乡人口福利方面的差距不断拉大。年轻的劳动适龄人群流入城市，老人和儿童被留在偏远乡村。如不加以解决，这一差距很有可能变为难以弥合的沟壑。在城市里，在城市户籍居民和外来人口中间也存在差距，后者获得公共服务的权利和渠道较少。
Three considerations must therefore shape a new urbanization strategy. The urban economy should be efficient in productivity and innovation. It should provide social justice and equal access to social services, which will help address the rural‑urban inequality, as well as within‑city inequality. Also, the issue of sustainability looms large in the minds of the Chinese people.
因此，在形成新的城镇化战略之前，必须要考虑三大因素。城镇经济在生产率和创新方面应实现高效；城镇经济应保障社会公正和公共服务均等化，这将有助于缩小城乡差异和城市内部差异；此外，可持续性问题已成为中国人思考的重要问题。
Let me briefly outline the policy areas for reform that our study identifies. Some of those proposed reforms have already been announced by the Chinese government as policies, in parallel to our work. Indeed, as we worked on our ideas, there has been a constant exchange between policy makers and the study team. This was indeed policy advice in real time.
请允许我简要介绍一下本报告提出的建议改革的政策领域。在我们开展研究工作的同时，部分改革建议已被中国政府所采纳作为政策宣布。在我们研究过程中，在政府决策者和研究团队之间有着频繁的交流，实际是一种实时的政策建议。
The efficiency of cities is really about improving the density of cities. Sprawling urban conglomerations entail huge costs. Think of the infrastructure for roads, water, sewerage and public transportation. It also stands in the way of improving productivity and innovation, which require cooperation between research and production, between all economic sectors, to achieve a synergy, as well as a productive, well-educated workforce. Think of cities like Stockholm, Barcelona or the Boston metropolitan area, as good examples. All of these are intimately related to the spatial dimension of cities.
城市效率的真正内容是提高城市密度。不断蔓延的城市集群会产生巨大成本，如道路、供水和污水设施以及公共交通等基础设施的成本，也会阻碍提高生产率和促进创新。提高生产率和促进创新需要研究与生产部门之间加强合作，各经济部门之间加强合作，这样才能做到协同一致，打造出高生产率、高素质的劳动力队伍。斯德哥尔摩、巴塞罗那和波士顿等城市就是这方面的范例。所有这些都与城市的空间格局密切相关。
中国城市密度不大，这一点可能会令许多人吃惊。例如，广州要达到首尔的密度，还可以增加4200万人。实际上，中国许多现代化城市的中心区密度较大。但是，以北京为例，三环路以外的地区开始出现蔓延。此类蔓延区正是可以也应该提高密度效率的地区。
Smart density planning is a guiding consideration for internal city design. Think of the superblocks in Beijing, sometimes 500 meters wide. Their very existence reduces the number of traffic arteries, because they only allow for a limited amount of junctions and crossroads, thus causing widespread congestions. A finer grained network makes it much easier to manage traffic.
精明的密度规划是内城设计的指导方针。以北京的超大街区为例，其宽度有时可达500米。此类街区的存在减少了交通干道的数量，因为其只能允许设置有限的交叉路口，从而导致大范围拥堵。更细密的路网大大便于管理交通。
The density of cities is also about more space for rural and agricultural land. There is a widespread assumption that China needs around 120 million hectares for food production. If China’s cities were to continue their urban sprawl, they would need to convert rural to urban a land area the size of the Netherlands over the next 14 years. That is clearly not sustainable. It would threaten the 120 million hectares red line.
城市密度增大也意味着为农村用地和农业用地留有更大空间。有关人士普遍认为，中国需要约1.2亿公顷土地用于粮食生产。如果中国城市继续蔓延，就需要在今后14年内把相当于荷兰国土面积的农村用地转为城市用地。这样做显然不具备可持续性，还可能对1.2亿公顷的耕地红线构成威胁。
Inequality is the second challenge. That is where the issue of land reform comes in. Part of the reason for urban sprawl is that cities tend to finance their expenditures by converting rural land into urban use. In this process, cities compensate farmers at the price of agricultural land, convert it into urban land, sell it to developers at urban land prices, and take the difference to finance their expenditures. Farmers are rightly aggrieved, and their demand for better compensation has led to social tensions and manifestations. No wonder the bulk of social unrest in China occurs at the urban periphery, where these two land systems—the rural land system and the urban land system—collide.
不平等问题是第二大挑战，而这正是土地制度改革的切入点。造成城市蔓延的部分原因在于城市往往通过把农村用地转为城市用地来为其支出筹集资金。在这一过程中，城市按农业用地价格给农民补偿，把农业用地转为城市用地，再按城市用地价格把农业用地卖给开发商，把差价用于为其支出筹集资金。农民感到不满意是情有可原的，他们对提高补偿的要求导致了社会紧张和抗议。因此，中国大部分社会不稳定现象发生在城乡结合部也就不足为奇了，因为这些地区正是两种土地制度——农村土地制度和城市土地制度相互碰撞的地区。
In terms of policies in China, we propose to focus on farmers’ property rights, moving away from the dichotomy of urban land and rural land, and eventually, to a unified land system. There should be legal limits to land expropriation and eminent domain actions by local government. Fair and equitable compensation for expropriation would go a long way to redress grievances of farmers. From 1990 to 2010, local governments expropriated land at an estimated two trillion renminbi below the market value. Assuming that those 2 trillion would have generated returns similar to overall growth, farmers would have more than 5 trillion renminbi in household wealth by now.
就中国土地政策而言，我们提议把重点放在农民的土地产权之上，从城乡土地二元制度逐步转向实行统一的土地制度。应从法律上限制地方政府的征地数量和征地行为。公平公正的征地补偿对处理农民的申诉发挥巨大作用。1990年至2010年间，地方政府以低于市场价格征用的土地总金额约为人民币2万亿元。假设这2万亿元以类似于经济总增长率的幅度产生收益，则到目前为止，农户家庭财产总值将超过5万亿元。
Inequality is an issue that is hotly discussed worldwide these days, as evidenced by the global success of Thoma Piketty’s book on Capital in the 21st century. It is also an issue in China: some urban residents are registered with the city hukou, a household registration system, and have access to public services, but migrants are left out. Things have somewhat improved over the years, and many cities are striving to provide social services for those migrant workers, but access overall is still restricted. We argue in our report that the hukou system needs to be abolished over time and access to services should be based on residency, not origin.
不平等是全世界近来热议的一个问题，托马斯·皮凯蒂所著《二十一世纪的资本》一书在全球的成功发行便印证了这一点。不平等也是中国的一个问题：城市户籍居民能够获得公共服务，但外来人口却被排除在外。这些年来，情况有了一定好转，很多城市努力为农民工提供社会服务，但总体而言，服务可及性仍受到限制。我们在报告中提出，户籍制度应逐步废除，服务应按照常住地而非户籍所在地提供。
Sustainable urbanization needs to redress environmental deficiencies, air pollution and the degradation of land and water. We find that, by and large, China has good laws and regulations, comparable to those of many OECD countries. At issue is implementation, the weak capacity of environmental agencies, the single-minded myopic future on economic growth, which only now is given way to a new emphasis on the quality of growth, of life. Administrative boundaries of cities and provinces are no longer adequate enough to deal with the environmental degradation that goes beyond those boundaries. Beijing will not be able to handle air pollution on its own, since pollution there is mainly caused by the neighbouring Hebei province, for example.
可持续城镇化需要解决环境缺陷、空气污染、土地和水资源退化等问题。我们发现，中国有很好的环保法律法规，可以与许多经合组织国家的法律法规相媲美。问题在于执行不力、环保部门能力薄弱以及单纯追求经济增长的短视观念。目前，这一观念已开始让位于一种新的对增长质量和人民生活质量的强调。以往的省市行政区划已不再足以处理跨越行政区划的环境退化问题。例如，北京仅凭自身力量无法解决空气污染问题，因为主要的污染源在相邻的河北省。
How is all this going to be financed? China’s fiscal system needs comprehensive reforms. With better and stronger land rights for farmers, cities will lose revenues from land conversion. Cities need new sources of revenue. Now is the time to empower cities to find new sources of revenue, through property taxes or local surcharges on income taxes. Environmental levies, such as higher motor vehicle licence fees, pollution charges and cost recovery on utilities, will raise revenues while addressing environmental problems at the same time.
解决上述种种问题所需资金如何筹集？中国的财政制度需要进行全面改革。随着农民土地权利的完善和加强，城市将失去土地出让收入。城市需要新的收入来源。现在是赋权城市寻找新的收入来源的时候了，比如通过征收不动产税或所得税地方附加费。通过提高机动车许可证费、排污费以及公用设施成本回收费等环境税费，可以增加财政收入，同时还可以解决环境问题。
To finance long-term investments in infrastructure, there needs to be reforms of the financial system at the city level. Local government financing vehicles need to be brought in to reduce debt levels. Cities in good financial standing should also be allowed to issue their own bonds.
要为基础设施建设筹集长期投资，就要改革城市一级的财政制度。需要引入地方政府筹资工具来降低地方债务水平。应允许财政状况良好的城市发行债券。
More efficient cities will yield major savings. At the current rate and without reforms, China’s cities will spend about $5 trillion on infrastructure over the next 15 years. In a reform scenario, China’s more efficient and denser cities may save some $1.4 trillion in infrastructure investments, more than enough to finance the expansion of health, education and low-income housing to cope with the influx of people. Shifting from the physical expansion of cities and infrastructure to delivering services to China’s citizens would truly be the people-oriented urbanization that is the ambition and aspiration of the third Plenary outcome from last November. And this is what we are proposing as well.
效率更高的城市可大大节省投资。从目前趋势看，如不实行改革，中国城市今后十五年的基础设施支出将达5万亿美元。如实行改革，效率更高、密度更大的中国城市可节省基础设施投资约1.4万亿美元，足以用于扩大医疗卫生和教育服务以及保障性住房规模，从而应对人口的大量涌入。从扩大城市空间和基础设施规模转向对中国城市居民提供服务，将是真正意义上的“以人为本”的城镇化，这是去年11月召开的十八届三中全会确定的宏伟蓝图，也是我们所建议的内容。
Thank you.
谢谢各位！
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