拉加德在2016中国发展高层论坛专题讨论上的发言

Accelerating Reforms to Establish a Risk Prevention System – A View from the IMF
基金组织观点：加快改革步伐，建立风险防范体系

Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director
基金组织总裁 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Beijing, March 20, 2016
北京，2016年3月20日

Ladies and Gentlemen,
女士们，先生们：

Good afternoon, Xiàwǔ hǎo.
下午好。

Let me start by thanking Mr. Long Guoqiang, Vice Director of the Development Research Center, for the kind introduction. I would also like to thank Governor Zhou for giving me the opportunity to share this panel with him on such an important topic.
首先我要感谢国务院发展研究中心副主任隆国强的介绍，也要感谢周小川行长，让我有机会能同他一道来共同讨论这个重要问题。

Establishing a stronger and safer international monetary system to prevent risks is of paramount importance for advanced and emerging economies alike. The moment could not be more fitting, given the conjuncture of risks and transitions in the global economy.
建立更有力、更安全的国际货币体系以防范风险，对发达经济体和新兴经济体而言，都是头等大事。全球经济正处在风险和转型交汇的时期，现在正是构建和改善该体系最恰当的时刻。

With China making a major contribution, over the past few years, we saw the center of global economic “gravity” shift toward emerging and developing economies. Together this group of countries is home to 85 percent of the world’s population and accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP. Since the crisis, they have become the engine of global activity, contributing more than 80 percent of global growth.
以中国为代表，我们看到，过去几年里，全球经济重心转移到了新兴和发展中经济体。这些国家占世界总人口的85%，全球GDP约60%。危机爆发以来，这些国家成为全球活力的来源，贡献了全球增长的 80%。

Yet today, economic momentum in this group of countries is slowing. Structural shifts on the global landscape, including lower commodity prices and tighter and more volatile financial conditions, are denting their long run growth potential. China itself is in the midst of an historic transformation to deliver on the Chinese Dream of a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.
但现在这些国家经济发展的势头正在放缓，长期发展潜力因全球经济形势的结构性转 变而受到抑制，如大宗商商品价格下降，金融条件收紧且波动更剧烈。中国本身正处在实现“中华民族伟大振兴”这一中国梦的历史转折期。

We all agree that this transition is good for China, and good for the world – but that the road may at times be bumpy.
我们都认为这样的转变对中国来说是好事，对世界来说也是好事，但这条道路可能充满曲折。

The global economy today is increasingly multipolar, complex, and interconnected. One needs to ask how the international monetary system can be strengthened so that China and other emerging countries can restore momentum and safely deepen economic and financial integration.
今天，全球经济越来越多极化，越来越复杂，互联程度也越来越高。人们要问，如何强化国际货币体系，从而使中国和其他新兴国家恢复发展势头，妥善深化经济和金融一体化呢？

As one of the largest and most systemic economies in the world, China has a clear and central role to play in this system – as Governor Zhou has eloquently articulated. The decision to include China’s currency as part of the SDR basket starting October this year, along with the 2010 governance reforms which places it among the top 3 shareholders in the IMF, are a testament to its growing leadership role in the global arena. And we should anticipate an even greater role for China in the future.
中国是世界上规模最大、最具系统性影响的经济体之一，在国际货币体系中发挥着明确的核心作用，对此周行长已经表达的非常明确了。基金组织于2010年开展的份额改革在2015年终获生效，使得中国跻身于基金组织前三大股东之列，并决定从今年10月份开始将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子。这些行动都是中国在全球舞台上领导作用增强的明证。我们期待中国将来能发挥更大的作用。

1. Where is the IMS today?
一、国际货币体系的现状

Over the coming few months, the IMF, in consultation with our membership, will be exploring possible options to strengthen the resilience of the international monetary system.
接下来几个月，基金组织将与各成员国磋商，探讨可采取哪些措施加强国际货币体系的抵御能力。

So let me start with how we see that system today.
因此，我首先要谈的是我们要如何看待今天的国际货币体系。

The 2008 financial crisis revealed considerable fault lines in the system. The impetus for reform was inevitable.
2008年金融危机暴露出该体系存在严重的断层。改革势在必行。
The priorities for the Fund were clear. We overhauled our own surveillance toolkit to take better account of economic and financial interconnections and spillovers, and revamped our institutional view on the management of capital flows. This is crucial to draw more attention to the risks and global implications of domestic policies. We are also enhancing our understanding of the impact of non-economic spillovers such as epidemics.
基金组织的工作重点很明确。我们彻底改革了基金组织的监督工具，更妥善地考虑了经济与金融互联性和溢出效应，改进了关于资本流动管理的机构观点。这是使各国更关注本国政策风险和全球影响的关键。我们还加深了对流行病等非经济溢出效应影响的理解。
The Fund’s role in the overall global financial safety net was also strengthened. The recent approval of the 2010 governance reforms led to a doubling of our quota resources – to about US$660 billion. This increase will put the Fund on a stronger financial footing and boost its permanent lending capacity.
基金组织在全球金融安全网中的作用也得到加强。近期批准2010年治理和份额改革后，基金组织的份额资源增加了一倍，约达到6600亿美元。这一增长将强化基金组织财务基础，提高其长期贷款能力。
Recent steps also bode well for greater representation of dynamic emerging economies in the governance of the Fund. With the quota reforms, the BRIC countries are now among our top 10 shareholders.
近期的各种措施也预示着充满活力的新兴经济体在基金组织治理中赢得更大的话语权。份额改革后，所有金砖国家现在均已进入十大股东之列。
 

There have also been improvements outside the Fund. Think of improvements to the global architecture, with the creation of the Financial Stability Board. Think of improvements in global cooperation, through the G20, of which China is currently the Chair. And think of improvements to the global financial safety net, with the creation of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the Chiang Mai Initiative, and the ESM in Europe. In many of these initiatives, China is a key founder and contributor.
基金组织以外的领域也取得了进展。比如，金融稳定委员会的成立改善了全球架构；二十国集团推动了全球合作，中国目前正担任二十国集团的主席国；又如金砖银行应急储备安排、清迈倡议以及欧洲稳定机制的创立完善了全球金融安全网。中国是其中一些此类倡议的主要创建者和推动方。

Today, there is also a network of bilateral swap lines that extends beyond the major advanced countries to include systemic emerging economies. Again, China is becoming increasingly important in this network, with more than 30 renminbi swap lines in place as of end-2015. These are equivalent to about US$500 billion and account for 85 percent of all global swap lines.
如今，双边互换网络已经不仅局限于主要发达国家，而是延伸至具有系统性影响的新兴经济体。中国在该网络中的作用也越来越重要，截至2015年底，已确定了30多项人民币互换额度，数额约为5000亿美元，占全球互换总额度的85%。

2. The need for further reform of the IMS
二、进一步改革国际货币体系的必要性

So, with all these important changes, a natural question is why the need for further reform of the international monetary system?
既然发生了这些重要的变化，人们自然要问为什么还要进一步改革国际货币体系？

In my view, the answer is simple. These reforms were implemented in response to the crisis back in 2008.
我认为答案很简单。这些改革是为了应对2008年爆发的危机。

The world today presents us with new realities that require a different response. Ongoing financial globalization and integration is creating challenges that we need to adapt to. I can think of three such new and interrelated realities.
当今世界出现了新情况，我们需对此做出不同的反应。金融全球化和一体化正在推进，我们需要适应由此产生的挑战。下面我列举三个相互关联的新情况。

New reality number 1: Post-crisis adjustments and increased financial integration have contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities.
新情况1：危机后的调整和金融一体化程度的提高导致金融脆弱性累积。

The good news here is that global current account imbalances have narrowed since the crisis. The not-so-good news is that the nature of the adjustment – combined with increased financial integration in many emerging and developing economies – may have increased domestic vulnerabilities.
这一新情况带来的好消息是，危机爆发以来全球经常账户失衡有所改善；但不那么好的消息是，调整本身以及许多新兴和发展中经济体金融一体化程度提高可能加剧国内脆弱性。

Financial integration brings clear benefits in terms of better allocation of capital globally and greater risk sharing. But if not properly managed and regulated, it can bring financial stability risks, which the global financial safety net may not be adequate to handle.
金融一体化能改善全球资本分配，促进风险共担，带来的好处是显而易见的。但如果缺乏妥善的管理和监管，金融一体化可能造成全球金融安全网不足以应对的金融稳定风险。

As of end-2014, total cross border flows in emerging and developing economies stood at about US$20 trillion. It is no surprise that cross border borrowing, particularly for banks and corporates, has become an important source of funding for many emerging economies. Yet, this source of funding can contribute to balance sheet mismatches and possible liquidity pressures.
截至2014年底，新兴和发展中经济体的跨境资金流动总额约为20万亿美元。跨境借贷，特别是银行和公司借贷，成为许多新兴经济体融资的主要资金来源，这并不足为奇。但是，这种融资来源会导致资产负债表错配，可能造成流动性压力。

Let us also piece together the major elements of the financial safety net that can be called upon to alleviate such liquidity pressures. These would include four broad elements: individual countries’ foreign exchange reserves, bilateral swap lines, regional financing arrangements, and financing through multilateral institutions like the Fund.
现在我们再来总结一下可以用于减轻流动性压力的金融安全网的关键要素，主要包括 四大要素：单个国家的外汇储备、双边互换额度、区域融资安排和通过基金组织等多边机构进行融资。

Together these resources were “roughly” estimated at about US$16 trillion in 2014, of which the bulk – US$12 trillion – is individual countries’ foreign reserves. Yet, not all countries have equal access to the various elements of the safety net.
据“粗略”估计，2014年这些资源共达16万亿美元，其中大部分（约12万亿美元）是单个国家的外汇储备。但不是所有国家都能平等获取安全网中的各项资源。

On one end of the spectrum, there are reserve currency-issuing advanced economies. These are best covered by all the elements of the existing framework. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are the non-systemic emerging and developing economies, which face the most limited set of options in this safety net.
一方面，发达经济体发行储备货币。现有框架的各要素最大程度地覆盖了这些经济体。而另一方面，不具备系统性影响的新兴和发展中经济体在该安全网中的选择最有限。

Clearly, we need a bigger – and more inclusive – net that captures all risks!
我们显然需要一个更大和更具包容性的网络，以防范各种风险！

New reality number 2: Capital flow volatility is becoming a permanent feature of the global landscape.
新情况2：资本流动波动正成为全球形势的一个常见特征。

Consider the exponential growth of cross-border flows over the past few years. These flows reflected both “push” factors, such as appropriately expansionary monetary policies in advanced economies, and “pull” factors, such as rapid growth in emerging economies.
过去几年里，跨境流动呈指数性增长。这些流动既反映出发达经济体恰当的扩张性货币政策等“推动”因素，也显示了新兴经济体迅速增长等“拉动”因素。

Yet today, uncertainty about global economic prospects and asynchronicity in monetary policies of major advanced economies pose a challenge for the emerging world. We should expect that episodes like the “taper tantrum” of May 2013 could be recurring, rather than one-off.
然而，现今全球经济发展前景的不确定性和主要发达经济体货币政策的不同步给新兴 经济体带来挑战。我们应该认识到，2013年5月“缩减恐慌”会再次发生，而不是一去不返。

The turning of the credit cycle in emerging economies – as capital inflows decelerate or even reverse – is adding a further layer of complexity. Last year, for example, emerging markets saw about $200 billion in net capital outflows, compared with $125 billion in net inflows in 2014.
新兴经济体信贷周期的转向使复杂性又加深了一层，如资本流入减速甚至逆转。比如， 新兴市场去年净资本流出约为2000亿美元，而2014年资本净流入为1250亿美元。

For a sample of 45 emerging market economies, the cumulative slowdown in capital inflows between 2010 and 2015 is estimated at about US$1.1 trillion. Relative to economic activity, the aggregate decline in net capital inflows represents about 5 percent of the sample’s GDP.
分析一个由45个新兴市场经济体组成的样本，其2010年到2015年期间资本流入增长的累计降幅估计约为1.1万亿美元。与经济活动规模相比，净资本流入下降总额约占样本经济体GDP的5%。

These magnitudes can test the resilience of even the most robust macroeconomic frameworks. Quick liquidity support during systemic events becomes of paramount importance to stem the risk of broader contagion.
即便一国具有最稳健的宏观经济框架，如此大规模的资本流动变化也是对其抵御能力 的考验。在发生系统性事件时迅速提供流动性支撑是遏制蔓延风险的重中之重。

New reality number 3: Increased financial globalization also means that financial spillovers are the norm, not the exception.
新情况3：金融全球化程度提高还意味着金融溢出效应成为常态而非例外情况。

Financial integration also strengthens spillovers, or knock-on effects, across countries. Think of the turmoil earlier this year that – for a while – wiped out the equivalent of US$6 trillion – or 8.5 percent of global GDP – in equity market indices.
金融一体化加剧了各国之间的溢出效应或连锁反应。比如，今年年初的波动虽然持续时间很短，但股票市场指数反映出，该波动造成了6万亿美元或全球GDP 8.5%的损失。

In the current international architecture, the central role of major reserve currencies means that policy and financial developments in reserve issuing currencies can have significant spillover effects on other countries. These knock-on effects can constrain domestic policy choices, especially when countries are at different stages of the business cycle.
在当前的国际架构下，主要储备货币发挥核心作用，这意味着储备货币发行国的政策和金融发展变化对其他国家有着显著的溢出效应。此类连锁反应可能限制国内政策选择，对处于商业周期困难阶段的国家来说更是如此。

Even so, major advanced economies are no longer the only source of financial spillovers.
但即使如此，主要发达经济体也不再是金融溢出效应的唯一来源。

Our forthcoming research in the Global Financial Stability Report shows that financial spillovers from emerging economies – to both advanced and to other emerging economies – have become stronger since the crisis. This is particularly the case for spillovers from equity markets in emerging economies, which increased by 28 percent since the crisis. Spillovers from some of the largest emerging economies, such as China and Brazil, were even bigger – at about 40 percent.
即将出版的《全球金融稳定报告》研究显示，危机爆发以来，新兴经济体的金融溢出效应对发达经济体和其他新兴经济体的影响增强。特别是新兴经济体股票市场的溢出效应自危机后增长了28%。中国、巴西等一些最大的新兴经济体产生的溢出效应更大，约达40%。

3. What should reforms focus on?
三、改革重点

So these are some of the new realities to which the international monetary system needs to adapt. There are others, of course. Think of the turbo-charged speed of financial transactions; think of digital currency and blockchain technology; think of cyber-hacking – from which even central banks are not immune. So, speaking practically, where should the focus of the reforms be? In my view, it is along two key dimensions.
以上是国际货币体系需调整适应的部分新情况。当然也还有其他的因素。比如高频金融交易，数字货币和数据区块链，再比如网络黑客攻击，就连央行也不能幸免。实际一点讲，改革应该重点关注哪些领域呢？我认为应主要从两个方面推进改革。

First dimension: ensure that the global financial safety net is large enough, coherent, and works for all.
第一：确保全球金融安全网覆盖充分，连贯一致，且对所有经济体都能发挥作用。

Clearly, strong policies and effective Fund surveillance remain the cornerstone of crisis prevention. Still, a large enough and more coherent global safety net, with a well-resourced Fund, remains critical. Options should explore measures that would strengthen the reliability and reduce the stigma associated with accessing the safety net.
强有力的政策和基金组织的有效监督显然仍是预防危机的基石。同样，覆盖充分和更加连贯的全球安全网以及资源充分的基金组织仍起着关键作用。我们可做的就是探索各种方法，增强可靠性，减少与利用安全网有关的污名效应。

At the Fund, we will be looking into ways to make our resources and instruments more predictable for crisis prevention and resolution. This includes further improving coordination among the various layers of the safety net.
基金组织将研究各种方法，提高资源和工具对危机预防和解决的可预测性，包括进一步改善安全网在不同层次间的协调。

We will also be exploring options to strengthen the role of the SDR in the international monetary system. The merits of a general SDR allocation will be considered in mid-2016, as part of our regular five-year review of the SDR.
我们还将探索如何强化特别提款权在国际货币体系中的作用。到2016年年中，在例行 的五年期特别提款权审查过程中，我们将考虑是否应进行一次特别提款权的普遍分配。

Second dimension: strengthen global cooperation on issues and policies affecting global stability.
第二：加强在影响全球稳定问题和政策方面的全球合作。

Increased global integration brings with it greater potential for spillovers – through trade, finance or confidence effects. As integration continues, effective cooperation is critical to the functioning of the international monetary system. This requires collective action from all countries.
全球一体化程度提高导致通过贸易、金融或信心影响更容易产生溢出效应。随着一体化继续推进，有效合作成为国际货币体系运转的关键，这要求各国采取集体行动

In practice, this involves large source countries – both advanced and emerging – to consider the impact of their policies on the rest of the world. We need to find a more systematic mechanism to discuss spillovers and how to mitigate them. There is also a need for greater cooperation on capital flows between source and recipient countries, and on global financial regulation.
实际上，这需要较大的溢出效应来源国（无论发达经济体还是新兴经济体）考虑本国政策对世界其他国家的影响。我们要找出更系统化的机制，探讨溢出效应和减轻该效应的方法。各方需就来源国和接受国之间的资本流动和全球金融监管开展更多合作。

For its part, the Fund will be taking stock of progress in the liberalization and management of capital flows, with a focus on capital flow measures and foreign exchange intervention. The role of macro- and micro-prudential policies in limiting vulnerabilities in the non-bank sector will also be explored, along with options to promote greater equity finance.
基金组织将考虑资本流动自由化和管理方面的进展，重点关注资本流动管理措施和外 汇干预。探索宏观和微观审慎政策在限制非银行部门脆弱性方面的作用，同时采取措施促进股权融资。

Let me conclude. Many options for reform of the international monetary system have been considered in the past. But changes have seldom been forthcoming until times of crisis.
最后，我们过去曾考虑过很多关于国际货币体系的改革方案，但直到危机爆发才真正做出改变。

The structural shifts unfolding on the global landscape pose challenges to the current architecture of the system. We should not wait for the next crisis to implement the reforms that we know could actually help to “prevent” it.
全球范围内出现的结构性转变给该体系的当前架构带来挑战。既然我们知道改革实际 上能预防危机，我们就不应等到下次危机爆发时再改革。

Reforms should be reconsidered in a holistic manner and with an open mind. This is critical to ensure that we have an architecture that can cope with the stresses that may come along in the next decade.
我们应该从全局、开放的视角重新考虑改革。这是确保我们的架构能抵御未来十年可能出现的各种压力的关键。

Clearly, China has a pivotal role in this process. The world will be watching closely to learn from China as it deftly manages the delicate balance between economic transformation and deeper global integration.
在这个过程中，中国显然发挥着核心作用。中国在实现经济转型与推进全球一体化之间娴熟地保持了微妙平衡，全世界都将关注中国并从中汲取经验。

There is a Chinese proverb that says: “To set a good example / Set yourself as the standard.” yǐ shēn zuò zé.
中国有句话叫做“以身作则”。

I am confident that with its wise leadership, China will set the right “standard” for itself – and the entire world.
我相信，中国能够善用其领导力，为自己也为全世界设立正确的“标准”。

Thank you.
谢谢。