IMF总裁丑闻为法国选举增变数

The indictment of ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges has upended French politics just a year before presidential elections.

国际货币基金组织总裁施特劳斯-卡恩被以性攻击罪受到起诉，在距离法国总统大选只剩下一年之际扰乱了法国政局。

Just a week ago, Dominique Strauss-Khan headed one of the world\'s most powerful institutions and appeared likely to run - and win - France\'s 2012 presidential race. Now Strauss-Kahn has resigned from his job as International Monetary Fund chief and spent several days in prison after allegedly assaulting a hotel maid.

就在一星期前，施特劳斯-卡恩领导着世界上最具影响力的机构之一，还可能出马竞选法国2012年的总统选举，并且胜选。如今，施特劳斯-卡恩辞去了国际货币基金组织总裁一职，并因涉嫌性攻击一名旅馆女服务员而在狱中度过了几天。

As he prepares for a likely trial in New York, his political career appears over - and France\'s election landscape has been thrown into turmoil.

正当他在纽约准备出庭审判，他的政治生涯也结束了，而法国的选举情势陷入一片混乱。

Like many analysts, France Television reporter and former Washington correspondent Ulysse Gosset, describes the changes as cataclysmic.

法国电视记者和前派驻华盛顿记者戈塞如同许多分析人士一样，形容这是个大变动。

"It\'s an earthquake for French politics and probably everything has changed in one week since the scandal has emerged in the United States. It\'s a big shock for French public opinion," he said.

他说，“这对法国政坛来说是一场大地震，自从丑闻在美国浮现后，所有事情都在一星期内变了。这对法国舆论是个大震撼。”

As the Strauss-Kahn controversy rages here, the political fallout appears unclear. So far, the sexual assault allegations dogging him have not hurt the image of his opposition Socialist party. Indeed, an IPSOS survey this week puts another, less charismatic Socialist politician, Francois Hollande, ahead in the polls, scoring 29 percent of possible votes - 10 points ahead of conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.

施特劳斯-卡恩的争议还在席卷法国，它所引发的政治余波还不明朗。目前为止，对他的性攻击指控还没伤害到他所在的反对党社会党。确实，另一名较没有魅力的社会党政治人物霍兰德在这星期一份益普索调查中领先，他可望赢得29%的选票，赢过保守派总统萨科齐10个百分点。

"Holland has started his campaign a few months ago quietly, saying he was a normal man and a good politician. And this image of stability and normality in [this] context is probably going to play in his favor," said Gosset.

记者戈塞说，“霍兰德在几个月前就悄悄地展开竞选，他说自己是名普通人和好政治家。在这个背景下，这样稳定和正常的形象可能对他有利。”

The Strauss-Kahn scandal has also benefited another politician - Marine Le Pen, the 42-year-old leader of the far-right National Front and a rising star in French politics.

施特劳斯-卡恩的丑闻也给另一名政治人物马琳.勒庞带来好处。42岁的勒庞是极右派国民阵线的领导人，是法国政坛的新星。

Le Pen told French radio Thursday that Strauss-Kahn\'s indictment definitely puts him out of the presidential race. She has described him as politically discredited.

勒庞星期四对法国广播电台说，施特劳斯-卡恩被起诉肯定让他和总统选举绝缘了。勒庞形容他政治名誉扫地。

Along with support, Strauss-Kahn also earned derision among ordinary French, who criticized his wealthy, "caviar-left" lifestyle. Analyst Philippe Moreau Defarges believes the sexual assault charges now facing him only serve to deepen public disillusionment toward the political establishment.

在受支持之外，施特劳斯-卡恩也成了一般法国民众的笑柄。他们批评他那优沃的、“吃鱼子酱的左派”的生活方式。分析人士德法尔热相信，他所面临的性攻击指控不过是加深了公众对政治成就的幻想破灭。

"It\'s clear Strauss-Kahn... is [perceived] as somebody who is above the law... It\'s why the great winner - and it\'s a pity - is Mrs. Le Pen. Because first, she\'s a populist and second point, she\'s not a traditional politician - she doesn\'t belong to the club," he said.

他说，“很清楚的，施特劳斯-卡恩被看作是凌驾法律之上的人。这就是为什么大赢家是勒庞，这是令人遗憾的。因为首先她是个名粹份子，其次她不是传统政治人物，她并不属于那个俱乐部。”

So far, President Sarkozy has remained uncharacteristically silent about the scandal. In 2007, he championed Strauss-Kahn\'s candidacy to head the IMF - in part, observers say, to get a rival out of the way.

目前为止，总统萨科齐对这起丑闻保持异常地沉默。在2007年，他拥护施特劳斯-卡恩角逐国际货币基金组织总裁，观察家说一部分是为了赶走政敌。

Strauss-Kahn\'s downfall has not improved Sarkozy\'s ratings. He remains one of France\'s most unpopular presidents ever.

施特劳斯-卡恩的垮台并没有改善萨科齐的支持度。他还是法国最不受欢迎的总统之一。

Still, journalist Gossett says its too early to write off a second Sarkozy term.

但记者戈塞仍说，消除萨科齐连任的可能性还言之过早。

"He\'s going to fight right to the end and he\'s very efficient. So even if the polls are low today, it doesn\'t mean a thing."

“他会力争到底，而他很有效率。所以即便今天的民调很低，仍是没有意义的。”

Next week, Sarkozy hosts the G8 summit in the French city of Deauville - giving him the opportunity to burnish his international statesman\'s stature.

萨科齐下星期将在法国多维尔市主持八国峰会，这会给他机会发挥国际政治家的才能。

And there are a slew of reports that his glamorous wife, Carla Bruni Sarkozy, is pregnant. The presidency has no comment, but recent pictures of Sarkozy are revealing. That may cast the French president in another flattering light - as a happily married, family man.

同时许多报导说，他迷人的妻子卡拉.布鲁尼.萨科齐怀孕了。总统方面没有评论，但卡拉.布鲁尼最近的照片已经曝光。这可能给这位法国总统更讨人喜欢的形象：一个幸福已婚又重家庭的男人。

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