美国人担心二次衰退

Some economists are worried that the United States is poised for another recession. They warn that a so-called "double-dip," if it comes, could be more painful for average Americans than the 2007-2008 recession. Jobs, incomes, output and industrial production are all weaker now than they were then. One sector that has been hit especially hard is housing.

一些经济学家担心，美国可能陷入另一次经济衰退。他们警告说，假如所谓的“双重下滑”真的到来，那将比2007-2008年的经济衰退更使普通美国人感到痛苦。就业、收入、产出和工业生产现在跟当年相比都更加薄弱。受到打击最严重的是住宅领域。

Mark Hudson is a real estate agent in Washington, D.C., one of the areas that has been least affected by the housing and construction bust. He peruses the day’s list of homes for sale.

马克·哈德逊是华盛顿特区的房地产经纪人。华盛顿是全美国受住宅建设泡沫破裂影响最小的地区之一。他正在仔细审阅这一天的待售住宅列表。

“We are down about 40 percent from June 2005 to June 2011 in home sales. That affects every potential area of the economy everywhere and we are, frankly, being close to Washington, in better shape then a lot of the areas of the country," he said.

哈德逊：“我们的住宅销售从2005年6月至2011年6月下降了大约40%。这影响到经济的各个层面，坦率地说，我们由于靠近华盛顿，跟全国很多地区相比，情况要好得多。”

One of the homes Hudson is currently trying to sell is in a historic district in a suburb of Washington.

哈德逊目前正试图出售的住宅之一，座落于华盛顿郊区一个历史悠久的地区。

He says he’ll sell the house for much less than he would have several years ago. And that reduced housing prices have a real impact on peoples’ personal wealth.

他说，这幢房子卖价比前几年低得多。而且，房价降低直接影响到人们的个人财富。

“If they had sold it a few years ago they would have cleared \'X,\' now they are going to clear $100,000 to $150,000 less. That is money they could use in retirement or for buying a new house or for putting their kids in college, so it absolutely affects their personal wealth,” Hudson said.

哈德逊说：“如果他们几年前把它卖了，他们会得到这么多钱；可是现在他们得少拿10万到15万美元。这笔钱他们本可以用来作退休金或购买新房子，或给他们的孩子交大学学费，所以他们的个人财富绝对受到影响。”

Robust home sales and construction can help drive an economic recovery. But economist Karen Dynan says that probably won’t happen this time around.

兴旺的住宅建设和销售有助于推动经济复苏。但经济学家卡伦·迪南说，这回看来是没有指望了。

“The real issue now is that demand is so weak because people don’t want to buy homes when their income prospects are so weak. When they are worried that house prices are going to fall further and until we can see that demand rise again we are not going to see home-building rise in a way that is contributing to economic growth,” Dynan said.

迪南：“现在真正的问题是，市场的需求是如此之弱，因为当人们的收入前景如此暗淡的时候，他们是不会买房的，他们担心房价会进一步下跌。直到需求再次上升，我们不可能看到住宅建设成为推动经济增长的动力。”

Many economists say that fear of the unknown is feeding consumers’ hesitancy. That fear has rocked global financial markets, following a downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt and a long-running and highly fractious political debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.

许多经济学家说，前途未卜使消费者犹豫不决。这种担心已经震动了全球金融市场，尤其是在美国的国债评级被降低后，以及旷日持久的关于国家债务上限的政治辩论僵持不下。

“Pessimism can be self-fulfilling. If a consumer wakes up one day and is worried about the future and doesn’t go out and spend, then retailers are going to see weak demand and they are not going to hire as much and income will weaken and that in turn will leader consumers to have even less inclination to spend,” Dynan said.

迪南：“悲观主义经常是怕什么来什么。如果消费者早晨醒来，由于担心未来而不去消费，那么零售商们将看到需求疲软，他们就不会招聘新人，收入也会减少；而这种情况反过来又会导致消费者更不愿意消费。”

Hudson says that with his personal income down by more than 50 percent, he’s certainly spending less. And he’s worried about what’s to come.

马克·哈德逊说，他自己的收入就下降了50%以上，所以他减少了消费。他更担心今后的日子怎么过。

“If there’s a recession, I don’t know what I would do because I have cut as much as I could, I believe. I guess I could do more but it would be difficult. I have cut as much as I can at this point, so it’s kind of a scary question,” Hudson said.

哈德逊：“如果经济再次衰退，我真不知道我会怎么办，因为我已经尽可能减少开支了。我想我可以多做些事，但恐怕很难。在开支上我已经尽力而为了。这真是个可怕的问题。”

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