美下届政府恐遇严峻经济挑战

A panel of leading economists at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says whoever wins the 2012 election has his work cut out. Whether President Barack Obama wins a second term or Americans decide change is necessary, the economists say the next administration faces an uphill challenge. Among them are persistently high unemployment, a surging national debt and the inability of political leaders to agree on very much.

卡内基国际和平基金会的一个经济专家小组称，不管谁赢得2012年美国总统大选，都将面临既定的任务。无论奥巴马总统是否能赢得第二个总统任期，无论美国民众是否认为有必要作出改变，这些经济学家说，下一届美国政府都将面临艰难的挑战。这些挑战包括，失业率居高不下，国家债务猛增，以及政治领袖难以达成一致。

"Under my administration, America is producing more oil today than at any time in the last eight years," said Obama.

奥巴马总统说：“在我的政府执政期间，美国目前的产油量比过去八年里的任何时候都要多。”

"Since the president [Obama] has been president, the cost of gasoline has doubled," said former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

共和党总统参选人米特•罗姆尼说：“自奥巴马担任总统以来，汽油价格已上涨了一倍。”

Soaring gasoline prices

Even as America\'s political leaders argue over who has the better energy policy, most economists say there\'s little anyone can do in the short term to lower gasoline prices.

尽管美国的政治领袖就谁的能源政策更好争论不休，但大多数经济学家说，短期内任何人都难以使汽油价格下降。

The same goes for fixing Europe\'s debt crisis - or the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing.

But a panel of economic experts says there\'s no shortage of domestic problems that require immediate attention. The housing market remains weak. Income inequality in the U.S. is now among the highest in the world. And despite a slowly improving job picture, labor economist Ron Blackwell said nearly one in five Americans is either unemployed or underemployed.

不过，一个经济专家组指出，美国国内不乏一些需要迫切关注的问题：例如房地产市场依然疲弱，以及美国是世界上收入不平等最严重的国家之一等等。尽管就业前景缓慢改善，劳动经济学专家罗恩•布莱克威尔说，美国有将近五分之一的人失业或者未充分就业。

"Whatever it means economically, this is socially and politically unsustainable," he said.

他说：“不管这在经济上意味着什么，这在社会和政治上来讲是不可持续的。”

Also unsustainable is the nation\'s rising debt, now approaching $15 trillion.

同样不可持续的还有美国日益膨胀的债务，目前美国的债务已达到15万亿美元。

Add to that the increasing burden on American taxpayers as millions of baby boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - reach retirement age.

还有一个问题是，随着出生于1946到1964年期间的数百万美国婴儿潮一代达到退休年龄，纳税人的负担将日益加重。

"This is going to be 40,000 per person in today\'s dollars in about 15 years. Multiply that by 7 to 8 million baby boomers - you\'re talking about $3 trillion per year or so in today\'s dollars, each year to pay the baby boomers their Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid [health] benefits," said economist Laurence Kotlikoff.

经济学家劳伦斯•柯特利科夫说：“按目前的美元计算，在今后大约15年里，每人的开支将为4万美元，再乘以婴儿潮人数700万到800万，每年用于婴儿潮一代的社会安全福利、联邦医疗保险(Medicare)和医疗补助(Medicaid)福利支出将达到约3万亿美元。”

It\'s a scenario Kotlikoff said will eventually bankrupt the country if political leaders do nothing. But finding agreement will be difficult.

柯特利科夫说，如果政治领袖不采取行动，上述情况终将令国家破产。但是，政治领袖很难达成协议。

With the majority of election spending now being financed by the top one half of one percent of the American population, former U.S. undersecretary of Commerce Robert Shapiro said a handful of wealthy donors can now dictate who gets what done in Congress.

鉴于当前的大部分竞选经费是由美国人口中最富裕的0.5%的人资助的，美国前商务部副部长罗伯特•夏皮洛说，一小撮资助竞选的富人可以干预国会的决策。

"What that is doing is exacerbating a polarization, which has developed in the last 15 years - and a polarization that is particularly dangerous because it\'s a polarization that coincides with a nearly even division of the country," said Shapiro.

他说：“这使得极端化问题加剧，过去15年来出现了政治极端化，而美国的这种极端化尤其危险，因为这种极端化同时伴随着近乎势均力敌的分歧力量。”

While the panel insists the slowly recovering U.S. economy remains among the most dynamic and most resilient in the world - Shapiro said today\'s highly contentious climate could lead to political paralysis on the most important economic issues of the day.

尽管这个经济专家组坚称，经济复苏缓慢的美国仍是世界上最有活力、最具弹性的经济体之一，但夏皮洛说，如今的极端化氛围可能会使美国在当前最重要的经济问题上陷入政治瘫痪。